Analysts Weigh In On Sunpower (SPWRA) Results

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09:10:58 am on March 19, 2010

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Analysts are weighing on the Sunpower (SPWRA) earnings results this morning.  Hat tip to Street Insider for the following analyst comments:

Piper Jaffray is maintaining a Neutral rating and is raising the price target from $22 to $25.
“SPWR provided in line FY10 revenue guidance but PF EPS guidance was below consensus; additionally 1Q10 guidance was much lower due to backend-loaded systems revenue. The stock will likely be weak near term on the below-consensus guidance; however, we believe that SunRay’s 1.2GW pipeline and EMEA presence should greatly increase SunPower’s visibility into 2010 and 2011 growth. We maintain our Neutral rating and slightly increase our PT to $25 on higher volume and better than expected margin outlook…We revised our 1Q10 revenue / PF EPS / GM estimates to $330M / $0.05 / 21.4% from $425M / $0.25 / 19.2%. We revise our FY10 estimates to $2.13B / $1.31 / 19.3% from $2.10B / $1.15 / 16.7%. We raise our FY11 estimates to $2.83B / $1.94 / 19.1% from $2.72B / $1.68 / 16.7%.”

FBR Research is remaining on the sidelines and has lowered the price target from $30 to $22.
“As expected, SunPower restated financial figures going back to 1Q08. On aggregate (pro forma), CY08’s gross margin declined from 28% to 27% while CY08’s operating margin declined from 19% to 17%. For the first three quarters of CY09 (pro forma), the gross margin declined from 22% to 20% while the operating margin declined from 9% to 7%.”

“We are reducing our CY10/CY11 pro forma EPS estimates from $1.93/$2.63 to $1.41/$1.83, versus CY10’s guidance range of $1.25 to $1.65. Our CY10/CY11 GAAP EPS estimates have also changed from $1.10/$1.81 to $0.19/$0.70, versus CY10’s guidance range of $0.05 to $0.35. Our price target has also been lowered from $30 to $22, which is based on 1.5x P/B, 1.0x EV/sales, and 7x EV/EBITDA.”

Brigantine Advisors maintains its Buy rating but has lowered the price target to $24.

“The fat lady has sung at least in regards to SunPower’s audit of accounting errors, and the magnitude of the financial restatements is relatively modest. In addition to the promised placement of tighter controls, we would hope the company would also revamp its communications with investors, who were provided about 3 minutes to digest the 30+ pages of the earnings release before the earnings conference call began…Our Q110 estimates go to $0.05/$337M from $0.48/$518M, for 2010 to $1.35/$2.17B from $2.30/$2.21B, and are introducing 2011 estimates of $1.72/2.76B…We are reducing our price target to $24, 18x our new 2010 EPS estimate. We think the likely pull-back in the stock will be a good entry point for investors.”

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