Hapoalim Securities: Gloomy Days Ahead For Most Solar Stocks (FSLR, WFR, STP, SPWRA)

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09:25:15 pm on September 28, 2009

In a Barron’s interview this weekend, Hapoalim Securities solar analyst Gordon Johnson reiterated his bearish call on the sector due to oversupply and soft demand.  He sees a supply vs demand ratio of 7.1GW:4.4GW for this year and 10.8GW:6GW for next year, so sees it getting worse, not better.  When asked about the recent run in solar stocks, he attributed it to the excitement over China’s feed in tariff program and said the excitement is overdone because it’s a local policy.  There was no mention made of the the fact that the credit crunch has eased and China may soon roll out much larger initiatives to spur demand. 

As far as individual stocks go he believes the recent run in First Solar (FSLR) offers a short opportunity and that Suntech (STP) has some accounting risks.

Here are some details:

Suntech (STP): has EPS estimates well below the street – sees EPS of $0.07 in 09 and $0.12 for 2010 vs the Wall St estimates of of $0.21 and $0.58 for 09 and 2010.  Price target $9.

MEMC Electronics (WFR): ongoing production problems and low poly prices continue to pressure.  Target of $9/share.

First Solar (FSLR): estimates 09 EPS at 6.56 and 2010 EPS plummeting to 3.07 vs Wall St estimates of 7.25 and 7.29.

Sunpower (SPWRA): estimates 09 EPS at .98 and 2010 EPS at 1.11 vs Wall St estimates of 1.19 and 1.84.  Price target is $15.

Trina Solar (TSL): says Trina is the best positioned and has price target of $24.

Solar stocks were largely under pressure today with significant relative weakness to the overall market, but weren’t hit too hard.

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