It’s been a volatile few months for solar stocks which saw a big surge off the bottom late last year only to retest those lows recently.  Today, solar stocks get a spark in positive guidance from First Solar (FSLR) which posted much better than expected guidance, but it remains to be seen if they catch fire again.  It’s too soon to begin calling another bottom in solar stocks, but today’s buy interest/short squeeze definitely means you should put solar stocks back on the radar for a potential trade in the coming days and weeks.

=== > Click Here For Your FREE First Solar Analysis

Here are highlights from the guidance:

2013:
Sales 3.8 – 4 B
EPS of 4 – 4.50
Module Shipments 1.6GW – 1.8GW
Analysts see FY13 sales of $3.15 billion and EPS of $3.46.

2014:
Sales 3.5 – 4 B
EPS 2.5 – 4
Shipments 1.8 – 2.2 GW

2015:
Sales 4.2 – 4.8 B
EPS 4 – 6
Shipments 2.3 – 2.7 GW

Shares of First Solar (FSLR) were up nearly 50% earlier today.  It has come off the highs just a bit, but is still trading at a new 52 WK high with very heavy volume.  Suntech Power (STP) is also up big at 33% and most of the other solar stocks are up anywhere from 10 – 20% today.  The Guggenheim Solar ETF (TAN) is up 15% and breaking out of  a downtrend.  In my opinion, if these solar stocks retrace the majority of this today’s move, that would setup a real nice, lower risk entry point.

=== > Click Here For Your FREE First Solar Analysis

A few days ago shares of Tesla Motors (TSLA) staged a significant breakout move above previous resistance, sending the stock to all time highs.  Technically, this is an extremely bullish move for the stock and likely leads to further gains down the road.

The move came after CEO Elon Musk confirmed that yes the company will post a profit for Q1.  While the company already indicated this in their last earnings report, Wall St apparently liked the confirmation as well as the slightly better than expected sales of the Model S and pushed the stock to all time highs.

Get Your Free Daily Analysis of Tesla (TSLA) Stock

Not long after that announcement, Tesla announced it is launching a leasing program in partnership with US Bank and Wells Fargo with the option (not obligation) to sell the Model S back to Tesla after 3 years at the same residual value percentage as the Mercedes S Class.  Tesla believes their leasing option gets its Model S in the hands of customers for less than $500/month.  The point of this article isn’t to go into the details of this news.  I recommend reading this article over at 24/7 Wall St which discusses the leasing in detail.

Most important, at least in the shorter term, is the impact on the stock price.  As I mentioned above, Tesla (TSLA) has staged a significantly bullish breakout to all time highs.  In the past few days it has pulled off that high to fill the gap.  This move is providing an outstanding 2nd chance entry point.   You can see the stock first broke out of a cup with handle base a few months ago and if you got in there, you weren’t shaken out of the stock and should still be holding.  This break to all time highs is more significant though and offers another opportunity.  The stock likely needs to digest a bit more with support in the 38 – 40 range.  That area is the ideal entry.

Get Your Free Daily Analysis of Tesla (TSLA) Stock

Disclaimer: I currently don’t own a position in TSLA.

Facebook (FB) stock has had quite a run since its Q3 earnings report back in late October.  After that report I mentioned that a floor was likely in the stock and that a run was likely setting up:

“Technically, FB stock base been trying to find a bottom to a base for several months and the gap up move tomorrow morning may just be the beginning of a sustained move.  However, as mentioned above, I think the stock will pull off the morning highs and possibly retrace most of the move in the coming days which could very well offer a nice entry point.  This earnings report likely puts a floor under the stock at least for a few months.”

====> Get Your Daily Facebook Stock Analysis Here
(it’s free!.. and helps support my independent research here)

That’s exactly what happened, as FB retraced the entire gap up and nearly retested the lows, offering a tremendous entry point at around the $20 level.  From trough to peak, FB staged a nearly 70% move up in just two months.  Not too shabby.  However, the chart is showing signs of breaking down with a head and shoulders like formation and an inability to get back above the 50 day moving average.  It’s difficult to say how far this correction will go, but it’s underway and in my opinion profits should be taken if you have a swing trade time frame and decent profits.  It appears to me a move to around $24 is likely (another 12-15% lower)

====> Get Your Daily Facebook Stock Analysis Here

Tesla Motors (TSLA) reported earnings last night that provided a bit of fuel for skeptics, but hope remains and the company has indicated profitability is just around the corner.  In the near term though, the stock is getting hit hard today and slicing through key support at the 50 day moving average this morning.  Let’s see if the stock can make a comeback and close at the 50 or just above.  That would be an indication of a fairly strong stock and keep the bullish trend intact.

It wasn’t a terrible quarter from Tesla, but far from good too.  The company reported revenues that were just ahead of estimates at $306 million, but reported a wider loss than what analysts were looking for (-.65 vs .53).  Helping to drive the stock lower was likely a soft deliveries number. Deliveries were 2,400 for the quarter and about 2,600 for the year which is below what the company was expecting.

Get Your Free Daily Analysis of Tesla (TSLA) Stock

For the optimists, the biggest takeaway was the fact that the company expects to achieve a profitable quarter for Q1, which is big considering the company wasn’t expecting to break even until closer to the end of the year.  The company credits increasing efficiencies and economies of scale.

Here are some highlights from the conference call (read in its entirety at Seeking Alpha):

-  we are going to start marketing heavily in Europe and then start doing the same in Asia.

- feel very confident of achieving a demand level in excess of 20,000 units a year. And I think, we’ll see quite a bit larger than that number as we expand to Asia and Europe and actually start marketing there.

- expect to deliver 20K Model S this year and achieve 25% gross margin by end of year

- There was a time several months ago where every car that came off the line would require some degree of rectification, but now that is very a fairly small percentage.

- we are not demand constrained, we are intentionally production constrained.

- we really have very high confidence that we will have a profitable first quarter.

- Could we step through your 1Q guidance for a bit. Given your guidance for 4,500 deliveries, mid-teen gross margins, and you’re calling for a 15% reduction in R&D versus 4Q,

- I think for a long distance- trip right now depending upon where are you in the country, a little bit of extra planning is needed.

- I do think next year leasing will be a big factor.

It’s been a rough go for shares of Zynga (ZNGA) since the company debuted, but there is daylight.  After bottoming out around the $2 level late last year the stock began to inch higher above the first major resistance area of the 50 day moving average for the first time since the correction again.  It held that new level of support for a few months before showing signs of significant buy interest just in the past few weeks.

On Jan 4th and Jan 28th, the stock showed healthy surges off the 50DMA with good volume, but it wasn’t until early this month after the company reported earnings (beating analyst estimates) that a sustained rally took place as the stock soared to the next resistance level of the 200 day moving average.  Buy volume soared to nearly 3x the daily average indicating strong conviction on the part of buyers.

This is where I get interested for a possible swing trade of a few weeks to a few months.  I want to see that initial surge, followed by a consolidation period with declining volume.  That’s what we’re seeing now and I think this period needs to play out for at least a few more days.  It’s possible it may need to come all the way back and retest support of the 50 day moving average (red line in chart below).

A trade entry for me is signaled if the stock returns to the 50DMA and holds and/or it breaks out of a consolidation period.  So, if it doesn’t touch the 50 again, but instead shows signs of breaking out of the consolidation (big volume & price surge intraday), then that is also a signal.  Either way ZNGA is an interesting swing trade to keep an eye one.

I’ve been covering Tesla Motors (TSLA) for a few years now (not as much recently) and since the company went public in June of 2010, the scrutiny level continues to rise.  With shareholder fortunes at stake and a general skepticism of electric cars, particularly of those not made by Toyota, the microscope has zeroed in on Tesla.  If there is one thing you can count on, it’s that CEO and Co-Founder Elon Musk won’t simply rely on a PR department damage control piece.  He’ll get into the ring himself and throw some punches.

In 2008, he hit the show Top Gear with a lawsuit claiming the show lied in order to sensationalize the piece where it showed the Roadster dying after just 55 miles along with criticizing the brakes as deficient.  The lawsuit was thrown out last year with the judge saying the show is more for entertainment rather than factual journalism so couldn’t be punished for embellishing the truth (which in fact it had).  Around the same time last year, the brick issue was making the rounds. The latest disagreement (that’s putting it nicely) involves New York Times writer John Broder who wrote about his journey in the Model S from DC to New York which ended with the Model S on a flat bed tow truck.  I won’t get into all the details of the “he said, he said”, but Broder claimed the car struggles in cold temperatures with a significant depletion in range.  Musk countered with tracking data from the car claiming that instructions weren’t followed by Broder. The end result of all this is another round of skepticism that in fact a Tesla made car can in fact be a mainstream car while Broder’s credibility is questioned.  Some point out the fact that he’s not an automotive expert and actually focuses on the oil industry.  Fair or not, you can understand the criticism.  Probably not the best guy to put on this assignment.  It should be noted that the NYT’s auto expert wrote a glowing piece of the Model S in September, but based on a drive in California, not the frigid NE. Taking a step back and viewing the big picture I think most of us can agree that the Model S, which is designed to hit more of the mainstream market, just isn’t quite there yet.  Perhaps in another year or two.  You can start at the price point which is out of the range of most middle class families and then consider the potential issues including lack of infrastructure.  The company originally expected to sell (CORRECTION: deliver.  The company has close to 20K reservations for the Model S and it’s expected to take close to a year to deliver on all these) about 5000 of the Model S in 2012, but estimations are calling for about 3500.  We’ll know the exact numbers once the company releases it’s much anticipated earnings report after the close on Wednesday. Heading into this earnings report, the stock chart for TSLA actually looks considerably bullish, so perhaps traders are forecasting a surprise the to the upside.  The stock broke out of a real nice looking cup with handle base a few weeks ago on decent volume and the pullback off the NYT story at least for the time being is a very normal pull back.  There is STRONG support around $35 and it looks like that level will need to be tested.  Should it be tested and it holds, that would be an excellent entry point.

===> Get a Free Daily Analysis of Tesla (TSLA) Stock Here

To wrap up this post, I just want to say that regardless of whether you believe in electric cars or not, or whether you like Elon Musk, you have to admire the drive and entrepreneurial spirit of Musk.  This is a guy who isn’t afraid to put it all on the line and continue to forge ahead when others say it can’t be done.  This is exactly the attitude that is the backbone of the success of this country and what continues to make it great today.  I’m rooting for Musk and Tesla and do think they will continue to improve the car over time.  Costs will come down  and maybe in a year or two you will see the Jones next door with a Model S in the driveway.

I’m hoping to do a few of these over the next few weeks to see if there is any interest.  Many of the charts featured will be of bigger risk, much higher reward so don’t even consider betting the farm   I like to dabble in these kinds of swing trades with 2-5% of my portfolio, looking for a quick gain of 20 – 100% over the course of a few days to a couple weeks.

Todays’ stock is Live Deal Inc (LIVE), a company that focuses on marketing services and products for small to medium businesses in local markets.  The stock soared a couple days ago and has been digesting those gains quietly.  Now, you just want to wait for a breakout from this consolidation with good volume which would signal a nice entry point.  The first chart is the daily chart showing Monday’s high volume surge breakout.  The 2nd chart shows the 5 min chart and orderly consolidation as traders take their quick profit.  Often times these stock will carve out this exact same move – big surge over one or two days followed by a digestion of those gains over a day or two, followed by a more sustained move in the direction of the breakout which in this case is up.

IMPORTANT: Be patient and wait for a breakout of this consolidation.  As I write this I see the stock has dipped below $4 and taking out intraday support so an intraday breakout is no longer imminent.  It may not happen until later today or tomorrow.. OR even at all for that matter.  That’s why it’s important to wait for buy demand to return.

===> Get a Free Daily Analysis of Live Deal (LIVE) To Help Guide Your Trade

Shares of Amazon (AMZN) are up nicely this morning, breaking out of a sharp cup with handle base on news that the company has secured an exclusive content licensing [...] Continue Reading…

A high quality breakout is taking place in shares of SodaStream International (SODA) this morning with good volume.  I don’t see any news on the stock at this time, [...] Continue Reading…

I’m always a big fan of tracking the top IPO’s because it’s from this group every year that the next big winners will arise.  When I ran SelfInvestors I [...] Continue Reading…